January 09 2023 | Books

Book: Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World

Aspen Economic Strategy Group

The Aspen Economic Strategy Group’s Annual Policy Volume Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World marks the group’s 5th anniversary and is released against a backdrop historic economic and strategic uncertainty. The book’s seven chapters, each written by leading experts and edited by AESG Director Melissa S. Kearney and Deputy Director Amy Ganz, provide a deep-dive on long-term economic headwinds confronting the country, including demographic changes—declining fertility and population aging—and what a smaller worker to population ratio means in terms of slower economic growth, reduced revenue, and lower productivity growth. Additional chapters on the US immigration system and US innovation policy highlight potential solutions for countering these trends.  Another chapter explores potential adverse impacts on local labor markets from the green energy transition and highlights policies to avoid repeating painful mistakes of the past, including the response to the decline of the coal industry and rise of globalization and automation. A final chapter highlights lessons learned from the unprecedented federal aid to state and local governments during the COVID-19 pandemic.

AESG co-chairs Henry M. Paulson, Jr. and Timothy Geithner lay out the stakes for the US economy in a foreword by asking: Can US firms continue to innovate the technologies of the future? Will the recent push for industrial policy help or hurt American firms? To what extent can public policy alter America’s demographic trends?


  1. Foreword: Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World

    by Henry M. Paulson, Jr. and Timothy F. Geithner
  2. Introduction: Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World

    by Melissa S. Kearney and Amy Ganz
  3. New Insights for Innovation Policy

    by Ufuk Akcigit and Sina T. Ates
  4. The Causes and Consequences of Declining US Fertility

    by Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip B. Levine