PUBLICATIONS

The US national debt passed 100 percent of GDP in March 2026 and is projected to reach nearly 130 percent by 2039. This worsening fiscal outlook comes at a time when income inequality remains high and advances in AI may...

As generative artificial intelligence (AI) diffuses across the economy, speculation about its impact on the labor market continues to grow. In Skills Alignment for the AI Economy: A Framework for US Labor Market Policy, Robert Seamans evaluates the labor market...

For decades, global investors were willing to pay a premium for the safety and liquidity of US Treasurys. That premium has eroded in recent years, and bond investors and monetary policymakers now disagree on how to price US government debt....

The 2025 GENIUS (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins) Act established the first comprehensive US regulatory framework for US dollar (USD)-backed stablecoins, setting the stage for significant growth of these digital assets in the coming years. In Stablecoins...

The United States is in the midst of a consequential demographic transition, marked by the dual trends of a sustained decline in the country’s birth rate and a rise in life expectancy. Following the mid-twentieth-century Baby Boom and its subsequent...

Demographic shifts are reshaping the U.S. labor market, as the share of the population within the working age has begun to decline. In The Age Divide in the American Workplace, Nicola Bianchi and Matteo Paradisi address the implications of this...

Roughly half of US counties lost population between 2010 and 2020, a trend driven overwhelmingly by declining fertility rather than changes in migration. Looking ahead, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the number of births will first exceed the number...

Low fertility and population aging have shaped the US federal government’s spending and revenue patterns, contributing significantly to the large and growing federal debt, which the CBO projects will grow from 98 percent of GDP in 2024 to over 150...

The discussion of impending population decline is often dismissed or minimized by arguments that downplay its urgency – or even welcome this development – because of the proposed environmental benefits. In The Environmental Benefits of Low Fertility and Population Decline...

Originally a small, inexpensive safety-net program, Medicaid has grown into a major national health-insurance provider, covering nearly one in four Americans and more people than the public health insurance programs of the United Kingdom, Germany, or France. In Coverage Isn’t...