PUBLICATIONS • The Aspen Institute Economic Strategy Group

June 10 2026 | Blog: By the Numbers

Key Takeaways From “AI for Good: A Conversation With Josh Tyrangiel”

Watch a recording of the event here. On June 9, 2026, the Aspen Economic Strategy Group hosted author Josh Tyrangiel to discuss his new book, AI for Good: How Real People are Using Artificial Intelligence to Fix Things That Matter. ...

Aspen Economic Strategy Group

March 20 2026 | Blog: By the Numbers

Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee: “Keeping Our Promises: Labor Inflows, Maintaining Competitiveness, and Supporting an Aging Population”

On Wednesday, March 18th, AESG Policy Director Luke Pardue testified at the Congressional Joint Economic Committee’s hearing, “Keeping Our Promises: Labor Inflows, Maintaining Competitiveness, and Supporting an Aging Population.” His written testimony is below. Watch the complete hearing here and...

Luke Pardue

February 24 2026 | Books

Demographic Headwinds: The Economic Consequences of Lower Birth Rates and Longer Lives

The United States is experiencing a significant demographic shift as fertility decreases and the nation’s aging population grows. The AESG’s latest series, Demographic Headwinds: The Economic Consequences of Lower Birth Rates and Longer Lives, considers the long-term economic impact posed by...

Aspen Economic Strategy Group

February 24 2026 | Papers

Introduction: Demographic Headwinds: The Economic Consequences of Lower Birth Rates and Longer Lives

The United States is in the midst of a consequential demographic transition, marked by the dual trends of a sustained decline in the country’s birth rate and a rise in life expectancy. Following the mid-twentieth-century Baby Boom and its subsequent...

Melissa S. Kearney, Luke Pardue

February 24 2026 | Papers

The Age Divide in the American Workplace

Demographic shifts are reshaping the U.S. labor market, as the share of the population within the working age has begun to decline. In The Age Divide in the American Workplace, Nicola Bianchi and Matteo Paradisi address the implications of this...

Nicola Bianchi, Matteo Paradisi

February 24 2026 | Papers

Implications of Low Fertility and Declining Populations for the Operations of US State and Local Governments

Roughly half of US counties lost population between 2010 and 2020, a trend driven overwhelmingly by declining fertility rather than changes in migration. Looking ahead, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the number of births will first exceed the number...

Jeffrey Clemens

February 24 2026 | Papers

Low Fertility and Fiscal Sustainability: The Effects of Past and Future Fertility Rates on the US Federal Budget Outlook

Low fertility and population aging have shaped the US federal government’s spending and revenue patterns, contributing significantly to the large and growing federal debt, which the CBO projects will grow from 98 percent of GDP in 2024 to over 150...

Lisa Dettling, Luke Pardue

February 24 2026 | Papers

The Environmental Benefits of Low Fertility and Population Decline are Overstated

The discussion of impending population decline is often dismissed or minimized by arguments that downplay its urgency – or even welcome this development – because of the proposed environmental benefits. In The Environmental Benefits of Low Fertility and Population Decline...

Kevin Kuruc

February 10 2026 | News

Aspen Economic Strategy Group Welcomes Four New Members

Aspen Economic Strategy Group Welcomes New Members Leading business executives and academics join bipartisan group dedicated to promoting evidence-based solutions to America’s economic challenges. WASHINGTON, DC, FEBRUARY 10, 2026 – The Aspen Economic Strategy Group (AESG), co-chaired by former U.S....

Aspen Economic Strategy Group

February 05 2026 | Blog: By the Numbers

Three Takeaways from the Census Bureau’s New Population Estimates

Last week, the US Census Bureau released new estimates of the US population over the past five years. Overall, the US population rose by 0.5 percent (by 1.8 million) from mid-2024 to mid-2025, a sharp slowdown from the prior 12...

Luke Pardue

Recent Publications

Key Takeaways From “AI for Good: A Conversation With Josh Tyrangiel”

Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee: “Keeping Our Promises: Labor Inflows, Maintaining Competitiveness, and Supporting an Aging Population”

Demographic Headwinds: The Economic Consequences of Lower Birth Rates and Longer Lives

Introduction: Demographic Headwinds: The Economic Consequences of Lower Birth Rates and Longer Lives

The Age Divide in the American Workplace

Implications of Low Fertility and Declining Populations for the Operations of US State and Local Governments

Low Fertility and Fiscal Sustainability: The Effects of Past and Future Fertility Rates on the US Federal Budget Outlook

The Environmental Benefits of Low Fertility and Population Decline are Overstated

Aspen Economic Strategy Group Welcomes Four New Members

Three Takeaways from the Census Bureau’s New Population Estimates