The Causes and Consequences of Declining US Fertility
US births have fallen steadily since 2007 and the total fertility rate is now well below replacement level fertility—the rate at which the population replaces itself from one generation to the next. Our analysis suggests that this trend is unlikely to reverse in the coming years. The decline in births is widespread across demographic groups ...
What’s After the Downturn?
AESG member Lawrence Summers and AESG director Melissa Kearney join Bloomberg TV’s David Weston to discuss what comes after the potential downturn and what the risks are of running out of workers.
Book: Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World
The Aspen Economic Strategy Group’s Annual Policy Volume Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World marks the group’s 5th anniversary and is released against a backdrop historic economic and strategic uncertainty. The book’s seven chapters, each written by leading experts and edited by AESG Director Melissa S. Kearney and Deputy Director Amy Ganz, provide a ...
Introduction: Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World
Economic policymakers are confronting the highest inflation in a generation, energy supply shortages, and shifting geopolitical alliances. These challenges rightfully occupy news headlines and policy debates, but longer-run headwinds in the American economy also warrant focused attention. This volume aims to highlight three such challenges and provide constructive policy options for addressing them: the need ...
A Proposal for an Enhanced Partially Refundable Child Tax Credit
This proposal was produced in collaboration with The Hamilton Project. The proposal will be presented by Wendy Edelberg at a Hamilton Project event on March 1st and can be viewed here. INTRODUCTION The economic case for expanded income assistance to low-income families with children in this country is exceptionally strong. We have ample evidence showing ...
IN BRIEF: The College Wage Premium Through the COVID-19 Pandemic
IN BRIEF COVID-related disruptions coupled with a tight labor market have led to a historic decline in college enrollment of recent high school graduates over the past three years. This drop, however, comes as the earnings premium for a college degree remains substantial and near decades-long highs. As globalization and technological advances fuel business demands ...
IN BRIEF: Cutting the Safety Net Is Not an Effective Way to Reduce Government Spending
BRIEFLY… High-stakes negotiations over the debt limit center on ways to bring government spending more in line with government revenues. The political contours of the debate have excluded cuts to Social Security and Medicare from consideration, as well as the possibility of raising taxes. With these options off the table, much of what is left ...
Why Drug Pricing Reform Is Complicated: A Primer and Policy Guide to Pharmaceutical Prices in the US
Pharmaceutical pricing in the United States is a complicated and opaque process. Confusion over price setting and the method by which new drugs are brought to market can lead to ineffective and even harmful policies that decrease society’s access to innovative new treatments without providing sufficient decreases in spending to justify the cost. At its ...
Why and How to Expand US Immigration
Immigration has long been celebrated as an engine of America’s economic growth and cultural vibrancy, even as the changes it brings often cause concern among the populace. An estimated 13.7 percent of those living in the United States today were born outside its borders, nearly as high as the peak of 14.8 percent in 1890 ...