Why and How to Expand US Immigration
Immigration has long been celebrated as an engine of America’s economic growth and cultural vibrancy, even as the changes it brings often cause concern among the populace. An estimated 13.7 percent of those living in the United States today were born outside its borders, nearly as high as the peak of 14.8 percent in 1890 ...
The Causes and Consequences of Declining US Fertility
US births have fallen steadily since 2007 and the total fertility rate is now well below replacement level fertility—the rate at which the population replaces itself from one generation to the next. Our analysis suggests that this trend is unlikely to reverse in the coming years. The decline in births is widespread across demographic groups ...
Will the climate incentives in the IRA be enough to meaningfully reduce emissions?
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (the “IRA”) represents Congress’ most substantial attempt to date to lessen American reliance on fossil fuels and to transition the country’s power supply toward zero-emission sources. Per the Joint Committee on Taxation’s estimate, the Act commits approximately $369 billion toward measures aimed at improving energy security and mitigating the ...
Introduction: Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World
Economic policymakers are confronting the highest inflation in a generation, energy supply shortages, and shifting geopolitical alliances. These challenges rightfully occupy news headlines and policy debates, but longer-run headwinds in the American economy also warrant focused attention. This volume aims to highlight three such challenges and provide constructive policy options for addressing them: the need ...
Seven Recent Developments in US Science Funding
Over the past century, scientific research and development (R&D) has fueled US economic and military might and propelled the country’s status as a global superpower. These investments have helped to launch not only the technologies that define modern life, including the internet, mobile and personal computing, and artificial intelligence, but also the healthcare advances that ...
Will Population Aging Push Us over a Fiscal Cliff?
The share of the US population age 65 and older is rising dramatically. In the year 2000, 12 percent of the population was over age 65; by 2050 that share will be 22 percent. Much of that aging has already occurred: in 2022, just over 17 percent of Americans are retirement age. Population aging is ...
Lessons from COVID-19 Aid to State and Local Governments for the Design of Federal Automatic Stabilizers
In this paper Clemens and Veuger analyze pandemic-era federal fiscal assistance to state and local governments and draw lessons for the design of stabilization policy. They start by explaining why the federal government plays a key role in stabilizing state and local government budgets across the business cycle, before describing the shape this role currently ...
The Hill Op-Ed: How to fight poverty and boost work with an enhanced Child Tax Credit
The president’s 2024 budget, released today, calls for reinstating the 2021 expansion of the Child Tax Credit, which dramatically reduced child poverty. The temporary effect of that one-year expansion on poverty rates was a remarkable feat — instead of what surely would have been an increase in child poverty while the economy was still weak, we saw a reduction ...
IN BRIEF: Cutting the Safety Net Is Not an Effective Way to Reduce Government Spending
BRIEFLY… High-stakes negotiations over the debt limit center on ways to bring government spending more in line with government revenues. The political contours of the debate have excluded cuts to Social Security and Medicare from consideration, as well as the possibility of raising taxes. With these options off the table, much of what is left ...