PUBLICATIONS

US births have fallen steadily since 2007 and the total fertility rate is now well below replacement level fertility—the rate at which the population replaces itself from one generation to the next. Our analysis suggests that this trend is unlikely...

Immigration has long been celebrated as an engine of America’s economic growth and cultural vibrancy, even as the changes it brings often cause concern among the populace. An estimated 13.7 percent of those living in the United States today were...

In this paper Clemens and Veuger analyze pandemic-era federal fiscal assistance to state and local governments and draw lessons for the design of stabilization policy. They start by explaining why the federal government plays a key role in stabilizing state...

The share of the US population age 65 and older is rising dramatically. In the year 2000, 12 percent of the population was over age 65; by 2050 that share will be 22 percent. Much of that aging has already...

The US economy has been suffering from weak productivity growth, business dynamism, and competition for the past several decades. The loss of a vibrant economy is even more concerning as the economy faces new challenges such as the transition to...

The COVID-19 pandemic plunged the US economy into recession, challenged the survival of millions of businesses, and threatened the economic security of American households. The recession officially lasted only two months, ending in April 2020, but looming economic challenges remain...

After suffering the worst economic shock since the Great Depression last year, the American economy is recovering in fits and starts. While many businesses are reopening their doors and thriving, others are struggling with tenuous demand, supply constraints, and higher...

Job loss during recessions can have long-lasting, negative consequences for workers and their families. In particular, long-term unemployment—and the associated exhaustion of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits—is associated with sustained income loss and increases in poverty. Workers who are less-educated, racial...

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an economic shock unparalleled in severity and breadth across the US economy since at least the Great Depression. The spring of 2020 saw unprecedented business closures and revenue declines. The government response was swift and unprecedented...