PUBLICATIONS

Recent Publications : Demographics and Population

May 02 2025 | Blog: By the Numbers

AESG Insights: The Economics of Falling Birth Rates

THE ECONOMICS OF DECLINING US FERTILITY Recent proposals such as “baby bonuses” and expansions to the Child Tax Credit have cast increased attention on the issue of declining birth rates in the US. The AESG and its director Melissa S....
Aspen Economic Strategy Group
July 21 2024 | Blog: By the Numbers

Rising Childlessness is Driving the Decline in Birth Rates in the United States

The United States has experienced a dramatic decline in birth rates, starting in 2007 and continuing through recent years. This post updates and expands on findings in Kearney, Levine, Pardue (2020), The Puzzle of Falling Birth Rates in the United...
Melissa S. Kearney, Luke Pardue, Phillip Levine
December 29 2022 | Articles & Op-Eds

Financial Times Op-Ed: America’s slowing population growth is here to stay

The US faces a demographic challenge that many other high-income countries have been facing for decades: below replacement level fertility. As American adults are choosing to have fewer children than previous generations did, the nation faces the prospect of slower...
Melissa S. Kearney
December 10 2022 | Papers

The Causes and Consequences of Declining US Fertility

US births have fallen steadily since 2007 and the total fertility rate is now well below replacement level fertility—the rate at which the population replaces itself from one generation to the next. Our analysis suggests that this trend is unlikely...
Melissa S. Kearney, Phillip Levine
December 10 2022 | Papers

Will Population Aging Push Us over a Fiscal Cliff?

The share of the US population age 65 and older is rising dramatically. In the year 2000, 12 percent of the population was over age 65; by 2050 that share will be 22 percent. Much of that aging has already...
John Sabelhaus
December 10 2022 | Books

Book: Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World

The Aspen Economic Strategy Group’s Annual Policy Volume Economic Policy in a More Uncertain World marks the group’s 5th anniversary and is released against a backdrop historic economic and strategic uncertainty. The book’s seven chapters, each written by leading experts...
Aspen Economic Strategy Group

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