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Low Fertility and Fiscal Sustainability: The Effects of Past and Future Fertility Rates on the US Federal Budget Outlook

Low fertility and population aging have shaped the US federal government’s spending and revenue patterns, contributing significantly to the large and growing federal debt, which the CBO projects will grow from 98 percent of GDP in 2024 to over 150 percent by 2055. In Low Fertility and Fiscal Sustainability: The Effects of Past and Future ...

Introduction: Building a More Resilient US Economy

The post-pandemic US economy features a strong labor market but also persistent inflation, rising levels of debt, and acute educational challenges. These issues are compounded by ongoing, systemic difficulties: domestic and global, economic and political. This policy volume considers these topics and others, with a thematic focus on building a more resilient US economy. The ...

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Low Fertility and Fiscal Sustainability: The Effects of Past and Future Fertility Rates on the US Federal Budget Outlook

Introduction: Building a More Resilient US Economy

Figure 1: Federal Spending and Revenues as a Share of GDP Since 1980

Figure 1: 2019 Federal Spending Per Capita, by Age

Figure 3: Government Spending Shares Within Age Groups, by Major Category, 2019

Figure 4: Federal, State/Local, and Private Philanthropic Spending Per Capita, by Age Group, 2019

Figure 6: MVPF vs. Per Capita Spending, by Age

Figure 2(a): CBO Projections for Federal Spending and Revenues, 2008–2053

Figure 2(b): CBO Projections for Federal Spending and Revenues, 2008–2053