Low Fertility and Fiscal Sustainability: The Effects of Past and Future Fertility Rates on the US Federal Budget Outlook
Low fertility and population aging have shaped the US federal government’s spending and revenue patterns, contributing significantly to the large and growing federal debt, which the CBO projects will grow from 98 percent of GDP in 2024 to over 150 percent by 2055. In Low Fertility and Fiscal Sustainability: The Effects of Past and Future ...
Implications of Low Fertility and Declining Populations for the Operations of US State and Local Governments
Roughly half of US counties lost population between 2010 and 2020, a trend driven overwhelmingly by declining fertility rather than changes in migration. Looking ahead, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the number of births will first exceed the number of deaths nationwide in 2033. Even under optimistic immigration assumptions, U.S. population growth will stagnate ...
Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee: “Keeping Our Promises: Labor Inflows, Maintaining Competitiveness, and Supporting an Aging Population”
On Wednesday, March 18th, AESG Policy Director Luke Pardue testified at the Congressional Joint Economic Committee’s hearing, “Keeping Our Promises: Labor Inflows, Maintaining Competitiveness, and Supporting an Aging Population.” His written testimony is below. Watch the complete hearing here and see more information about the hearing here. Chairman Schweikert, Ranking Member Hassan, and other members ...
Eight Questions—and Some Answers—on the US Fiscal Situation
In this paper, Jason Furman addresses eight specific questions essential to understanding the US fiscal situation and what policymakers can do to address the federal debt. He finds that an adjustment of between 0.7 and 4.6 percent of GDP is necessary to stabilize the debt over the next decade, and he proposes a broad set ...
In Brief: Building Security in the Semiconductor Supply Chain
BRIEFLY Semiconductors are the building blocks of almost every modern technology, from dishwashers to smartphones to javelin missiles. Shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic, along with rising geopolitical tensions in the region where most chips are produced, have highlighted the fragile supply chains of this critical technology. In response, US policymakers have invested billions in the ...
Maya MacGuineas
MAYA MACGUINEAS is the president of the bipartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Her areas of expertise include budget, tax, and economic policy. As a leading budget expert for the past twenty years and a political independent, she has worked closely with members of both parties and serves as a trusted resource on Capitol ...
Natasha Sarin
NATASHA SARIN is a Professor of Law at Yale Law School with a secondary appointment at the Yale School of Management in the Finance Department. She is also the President and Co-Founder of the Budget Lab at Yale. Previously, Natasha served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy and later as a Counselor to Treasury ...