Technological Disruption in the US Labor Market
DAVID DEMING, CHRISTOPHER ONG, LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS This paper explores past episodes of technological disruption in the US labor market, with the goal of learning lessons about the likely future impact of artificial intelligence (AI). The authors measure changes in the structure of the US labor market going back over a century in two ways. ...
The Surprising Resilience of Globalization: An Examination of Claims of Economic Fragmentation
This paper evaluates the current landscape of global trade and financial flows and proposes a set of reforms to support healthier forms of integration. Brad Setser finds that, despite the growing, bipartisan skepticism about the value of liberal trade, global economic integration remains surprisingly resilient. In fact, Setser argues, the immediate risk facing the global ...
Introduction: Strengthening America’s Economic Dynamism
Global tensions and domestic discontent are driving a new era of economic policymaking. Leaders in both parties are turning away from free-market principles and endorsing an increase in protectionist trade policies and more active government-directed industrial policy. Further, these disruptions come when the country’s economic and political landscapes face systemic difficulties including limited state capacity ...
Aspen Economic Strategy Group Welcomes New Members
Aspen Economic Strategy Group Welcomes New Members Leading policymakers, business executives, and academics join bipartisan group dedicated to promoting evidence-based solutions to America’s economic challenges. WASHINGTON, DC, MARCH 12, 2025 – The Aspen Economic Strategy Group (AESG) today announced that eleven new members have joined the bipartisan group of distinguished leaders and thinkers who are ...
AESG Insights: The Economics of Falling Birth Rates
THE ECONOMICS OF DECLINING US FERTILITY Recent proposals such as “baby bonuses” and expansions to the Child Tax Credit have cast increased attention on the issue of declining birth rates in the US. The AESG and its director Melissa S. Kearney have repeatedly highlighted the significant social and economic consequences of the country’s falling birth ...
Key Takeaways from “After the Spike: Population, Progress, and the Case for People”
On July 9th, 2025, the Aspen Economic Strategy Group hosted economists Michael Geruso and Dean Spears for a conversation on their new book, After the Spike: Population, Progress, and the Case for People. In After the Spike, Geruso and Spears examine the decline in global birth rates and consider what a drop in the global ...
Beyond the Myths: A Clearer Path to Poverty Alleviation in America
In “Beyond the Myths: A Clearer Path to Poverty Alleviation in America,” Melissa S. Kearney and James Sullivan reassess poverty trends and policy responses in the United States. They document that, contrary to common perceptions, poverty has declined substantially over the past four decades and that anti-poverty programs have played a central role in this ...
Advancing America’s Prosperity
The United States stands at a pivotal moment in economic policymaking. Sweeping domestic legislation changes, rising geopolitical tensions, and rapid advances in artificial intelligence have fueled a high degree of uncertainty about economic conditions, for both households and businesses. These developments also raise urgent questions about how best to safeguard and advance America’s prosperity and ...
Top 12 Charts of 2025 from the AESG
Happy holidays from the Aspen Economic Strategy Group! Thank you for your continued interest and support of our work. As a group devoted to advancing evidence-based economic policy, we appreciate the powerful role that charts play in telling the story of our economy. Enjoy twelve figures that showcase the AESG’s work in 2025! Figure 1: ...