Will Population Aging Push Us over a Fiscal Cliff?
The share of the US population age 65 and older is rising dramatically. In the year 2000, 12 percent of the population was over age 65; by 2050 that share will be 22 percent. Much of that aging has already occurred: in 2022, just over 17 percent of Americans are retirement age. Population aging is ...
Lessons from COVID-19 Aid to State and Local Governments for the Design of Federal Automatic Stabilizers
In this paper Clemens and Veuger analyze pandemic-era federal fiscal assistance to state and local governments and draw lessons for the design of stabilization policy. They start by explaining why the federal government plays a key role in stabilizing state and local government budgets across the business cycle, before describing the shape this role currently ...
IN BRIEF: Entrepreneurship Since the COVID-19 Pandemic
Editor’s note: The Aspen Economic Strategy Group is pleased to welcome Luke Pardue, an economist at the payroll and HR platform Gusto, as an AESG Fellow. Luke obtained his PhD in economics from the University of Maryland and previously worked at the Federal Reserve Board and the US Census Bureau. As an AESG Fellow, Pardue ...
A Proposal for an Enhanced Partially Refundable Child Tax Credit
This proposal was produced in collaboration with The Hamilton Project. The proposal will be presented by Wendy Edelberg at a Hamilton Project event on March 1st and can be viewed here. INTRODUCTION The economic case for expanded income assistance to low-income families with children in this country is exceptionally strong. We have ample evidence showing ...
IN BRIEF: The College Wage Premium Through the COVID-19 Pandemic
IN BRIEF COVID-related disruptions coupled with a tight labor market have led to a historic decline in college enrollment of recent high school graduates over the past three years. This drop, however, comes as the earnings premium for a college degree remains substantial and near decades-long highs. As globalization and technological advances fuel business demands ...
TIME Magazine Op-Ed: Too Many High School Seniors Are Turning Away from College Altogether
For many high school seniors and their families, May 1st is “National College Decision Day,” when millions of students make a personal decision about their academic future. It is also a decision with financial implications that will shape much of their lives. While headlines often cite the ultra-competitive landscape for highly selective schools, recent years have ...
IN BRIEF: The Who, What, and Why of Declining College Enrollment, 2019-2021
BRIEFLY… College enrollment in the US declined among recent high school graduates in the past couple of years, even as the economic returns to a college degree remain substantial – see this previous IN BREIF. In this post, we show that this drop in college enrollment was concentrated among men, and it was not limited ...
IN BRIEF: Cutting the Safety Net Is Not an Effective Way to Reduce Government Spending
BRIEFLY… High-stakes negotiations over the debt limit center on ways to bring government spending more in line with government revenues. The political contours of the debate have excluded cuts to Social Security and Medicare from consideration, as well as the possibility of raising taxes. With these options off the table, much of what is left ...
Press Release: Why Drug Pricing Is Complicated
Aspen Economic Strategy Group releases new paper by Kellogg’s Craig Garthwaite and Amanda Starc WASHINGTON, DC | WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 30, 2023 — The Aspen Economic Strategy Group (AESG) today released a new paper, “Why Drug Pricing is Complicated,” by Craig Garthwaite and Amanda Starc of Northwestern’s Kellogg School of Management. The paper details the complicated drug ...