Authors

Karen Dynan

Publications

High and Rising US Federal Debt: Causes and Implications

The outlook for federal debt represents a significant economic challenge for the United States. Economic developments and policy changes over the past two decades have materially raised the level of current and projected debt, but the primary factors behind the projected upward trajectory of debt remain population aging and rising health care spending. Even under ...

Figure 2: Federal deficit and surplus, 1963-2053

Figure 3: Share of US population 65 and older, 2000-2053

Figure 5: Different vintages of federal debt projections, 2000-2053

Figure 1: Federal debt held by the public, 1940-2053

From “High and Rising US Federal Debt: Causes and Implications,” by Karen Dynan.

Figure 9: Federal spending and revenues, 1963-2053

Figure 10: Average federal tax rates by income bracket, 1979-2019

Figure 7: Actual and projected interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes, 1992-2033

Figure 4: Parsing the change in the federal deficit, 2024-2053

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