February 24 2026 | Books

Demographic Headwinds: The Economic Consequences of Lower Birth Rates and Longer Lives

Aspen Economic Strategy Group

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The United States is experiencing a significant demographic shift as fertility decreases and the nation’s aging population grows. The AESG’s latest series, Demographic Headwinds: The Economic Consequences of Lower Birth Rates and Longer Lives, considers the long-term economic impact posed by the country’s falling birth rate and aging population, including the effects on the US labor market, US fiscal sustainability, state and local public finances, and environmental sustainability.

Introduction
By Melissa S. Kearney and Luke Pardue

The Age Divide in the American Workplace
By Nicola Bianchi and Matteo Paradisi

Low Fertility and Fiscal Sustainability: The Effects of Past and Future Fertility Rates on the US Federal Budget Outlook
By Lisa Dettling and Luke Pardue

Implications of Low Fertility and Declining Populations for the Operations of US State and Local Governments
By Jeffrey Clemens

The Environmental Benefits of Low Fertility and Population Decline are Overstated
By Kevin Kuruc