Introduction: Advancing America’s Prosperity
The United States stands at a pivotal moment in economic policymaking. The Trump administration has profoundly reshaped America’s approach to international economics, adopting a more confrontational stance on trade and retreating from long-standing multilateral agreements. In April 2025, the Trump administration announced tariffs on goods from every US trading partner, ranging from 11 to 50 percent, which were then reduced to 10 percent as countries negotiated bilateral trade agreements (White House 2025b). This bilateral, “deals-based” approach to trade negotiations further cements the end of an earlier era of engagement through multilateral institutions.
In addition, Congress has passed sweeping legislation that makes significant changes across a range of domestic policy areas. The recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) extends expiring provisions in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), introduces new tax cuts, reduces the generosity of Medicaid and SNAP, rolls back incentives for renewable-energy investments, eases financing requirements for low-income housing, bolsters national defense, and strengthens border security efforts, all while adding an estimated $3.4 trillion to the federal deficit over the next ten years (CBO 2025). Questions abound about the economic implications of the bill’s many provisions, including how the permanence of some TCJA provisions will affect business investment, how changes to Medicaid and SNAP will impact vulnerable populations, and how the increase in debt will drive up interest rates and affect the macroeconomy.
Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions and rapid advances in artificial intelligence are redefining the landscape for US strategic competitiveness. China is taking steps to advance its economic capacity and to boost its military capabilities, and Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine marks its clear ambitions of territorial expansion. The US faces these rising global tensions with eroded industrial capacity and a weaker recognition of the connection between commercial interests and the country’s national interests that came to define prior decades.
All these developments have fueled a high degree of economic uncertainty about economic conditions, for both households and businesses. Measures of consumer sentiment remain well below levels in 2023 and 2024 (Economic Policy Uncertainty Index n.d. and University of Michigan 2025, respectively). These developments also raise urgent questions about how best to safeguard and advance America’s prosperity and bolster America’s strategic competitiveness.
This 2025 Aspen Economic Strategy Group (AESG) policy volume takes up these questions. The six chapters in this book, organized into two sections, consider the implications of these developments and evidence-based approaches to moving forward in a way that bolsters American economic prosperity.