Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Title: The Environmental Benefits of Low Fertility and Population Decline are Overstated
Author-Name: Kevin Kuruc
Abstract: The discussion of impending population decline is often dismissed or
  minimized by arguments that downplay its urgency – or even welcome
  this development – because of the proposed environmental benefits.
  This paper argues that the environmental benefits of depopulation are
  far smaller than widely believed, and
  that complacency about population decline may be counterproductive to
  climate goals. First, there is a fundamental issue of timing mismatch.
  Demographic change unfolds over generations, while effective responses
  to emissions and environmental harm require immediate action. Second,
  effective climate strategies, such as carbon capture, require high fixed
  capital and labor costs. The smaller the economy, the larger the share
  of national income required to achieve climate goals. Beyond the
  climate, there is little evidence to suggest that increases in
  per-capita resource availability from depopulation would materially
  improve living standards, as modern natural-resource constraints on
  well-being are limited and declining. In contrast, sustainability
  depends on policy, human ingenuity, and fiscal capacity, none of which
  are aided by a shrinking and aging population. Taken together, this
  paper argues that effective sustainability policy will require sustained
  public investment and proactive policy.
Creation-Date: 2026-02-01
Keywords: environmental economics, demographics
File-URL: https://www.economicstrategygroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/The-Environmental-Benefits-of-Low-Fertility-Are-Overstated-2.pdf
File-Format: Application/PDF
Handle: RePEc:cxx:wpaper:the-environmental-benefits-of-low-fertility-are-overstated-2